Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 39.739114 46.992288 54.970547 64.367219 75.099743 86.943030 100.967139
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 30.355477 40.301075 52.310682 67.744037 86.900398 109.736310 138.841027
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 24.771327 35.980259 50.515146 70.445262 96.720604 129.802093 174.168351
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 20.282122 31.868785 47.846065 70.987515 103.058063 145.269832 204.235481
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 16.237398 27.485782 43.914646 68.937513 105.212851 154.880709 226.784756
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.736659 24.863236 41.966289 69.186468 110.206427 168.283683 254.920075
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.936696 22.987889 40.789278 70.267208 116.248793 183.297973 285.963979
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.337711 19.299058 36.213506 65.482425 112.894474 184.268936 296.658060
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.364377 18.286028 35.846051 67.286223 119.708833 200.555187 330.561533
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 7.162032 16.625943 34.126589 66.596694 122.377278 210.554957 355.408503
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.829750 16.605631 35.298989 70.927814 133.516790 234.287877 402.452579
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.572436 14.458060 32.258817 67.463728 131.214782 236.426950 415.741263
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.050329 13.900395 32.387531 70.168831 140.433475 258.917642 464.560846
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.635040 13.525076 32.872458 73.686695 151.555285 285.574602 522.213871
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.210944 13.033860 33.036872 76.576428 161.743676 311.260552 579.674315
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.664542 12.104714 32.112760 77.157501 167.646079 329.874403 626.227681
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.016686 10.734660 29.976311 74.956137 168.006906 338.702739 656.485036
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.619595 9.956187 29.069978 75.223487 173.124081 356.239046 702.612594
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.324770 9.400792 28.606078 76.384004 180.069533 377.442062 756.169811
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.787792 7.910056 25.528978 71.244552 173.667343 373.439889 764.406304
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.622196 7.610214 25.502706 73.182503 182.162549 397.969061 825.498796
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.381442 6.963196 24.418264 72.441758 184.843980 411.441377 866.825885
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.342773 7.070216 25.477585 77.093284 199.610173 449.206856 955.036231